Experts predict Chinese brands will capture 33% of the global car market by 2030

According to AlixPartners, market share will rise quickly from 21 percent this year, with most of the growth occurring outside of China.

By 2030, one in every three cars sold worldwide will be manufactured by a Chinese automaker. This startling prediction comes from industry experts analyzing China’s growth trajectory.

Chinese cars currently hold a substantial 21 percent of the market, but analysts anticipate rapid expansion of the nation’s industry. Some growth will occur within China, with domestic brands increasing their market share from 59 to 72 percent at the expense of Western brands.

Even more concerning for Western brands, most of the additional sales will come from outside China. AlixPartners predicts that sales of Chinese automakers outside of China will surge from 3 million in 2024 to 9 million by the end of the decade.

Despite new 100 percent tariffs imposed by the Biden Administration limiting China’s expansion into North America and the difficulty of entering the Japanese market, the study predicts that Chinese automakers will double their share of the European car market to 12 percent by 2030 and increase their 33 percent share of the Russian market to 69 percent.

Sales in the Middle East and Africa are expected to grow from 8 to 39 percent, and deliveries in Central and South America could rise from 7 to 28 percent, according to CNBC.

The higher margins and aggressive pricing strategies of Chinese automakers are well known, but analysts have identified additional significant advantages. These include development times that are half those of Western carmakers, allowing China to refresh its model lineups more frequently.

“Chinese brands place a higher value on features customers can actually experience, such as design and in-cabin technology. They are ruthlessly focused on maintaining their cost advantage even as they build factories abroad, and they have established a considerable lead in emerging technologies, including battery production,” says AlixPartners’ Andrew Bergbaum.

“These capabilities have captivated China and will eventually define the global marketplace,” he added.


  • Ian Sawyer

    Growing up with a father who was a mechanic I had an appreciation for cars and motorcycles from an early age. I shared my first bike with my brother that had little more than a 40cc engine but it opened up a world of excitement for me, I was hooked. As I grew older I progressed onto bigger bikes and...

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